Sky Sports Racing’s senior form analyst Jamie Lynch returns with another 10 runners to follow through the 2025 Flat season.
It’s that time of year in racing when pages, podcasts and platforms are flooded with horses-to-follow lists for the Flat, not that anybody is suggesting for a second that their considered collection should be blindly backed in some brainless game of betting bingo. No, the spirit of the shortlist is more a community cribsheet and buzz-builder for the season ahead
Here is my contribution and, as usual, instead of rather randomly selecting 10 horses, I’ve elected 10 categories and assigned a horse to each, in the hope of an equitable and estimable list to spark some ideas. Let’s go…
Green Impact (Classic boy)
The Futurity at Doncaster was almost a win-win for Jessica Harrington: the literal Group One win for Hotazhell and the collateral win for Green Impact who likewise beat Delacroix, not once but twice, including in the Champions Juvenile Stakes.
What he did on the track (more functional than flashy) and what he didn’t do on the track (sat out the autumn Group Ones) means there’s less fuss and fanfare around him than there perhaps ought to be for one with his standards and scope, with his sights on the Guineas and Derby, bred for middle distances (by Wootton Bassett), and he’s at least 40/1 for both.
Green Impact and Shane Foley (left) win the KMPG Champions Juvenile Stakes
Zarigana (Classic girl)
All of the greats had a pivot point, a race or a moment that went wrong, a learning to put into practice to get them where they’re destined to be.
For Frankel it was his ugliest win in the St James’s Palace Stakes when he and his pacemaker were out of sync and (Henry) Cecil’s face said it all, and we may be talking in years to come about Zarigana’s pivot point in the Marcel Boussac.
Overconfident or underripe, whatever the reason for her narrow defeat (after tanking through the race again) is a learning to put into practice, and it doesn’t dim the star signs from her preceding wins which had a passing resemblance to her grandam, the great Zarkava, who might actually have been the exception to the pivot-point rule. Zarigana could still sweep all before her this year and she’s 16/1 for the Arc.
Storm Free (Three-year-old handicapper: Sprint)
Look for yourself, the TPD data projects Storm Free as a much better horse than his opening mark of 83, learning through each of his races, both of his seconds generating the flame symbol for his turbo-charged finishes, recording the fastest closing splits as well as the highest final speed, rare to exceed 34mph in that department as he did not once but twice.
He’ll be all the more cultivated and clinical as a three-year-old, when his turn of foot will be weaponised in the high-value handicaps.
Counting Cards (Three-year-old handicapper: Mile)
Only three trainers in Britain (with 50+ runners) had a higher strike-rate in handicaps than Ed Bethell last year, some stat for a swelling stable which had the Britannia winner in Mickley, part of the reason why I took a jeweller’s eyepiece to Bethell’s string for this specific category; and lo and behold Counting Cards.
He’s very much bred for a mile but was kept to shorter in the foundation phase of his career, and the way he finished off for second over as little as six furlongs at Pontefract was a window into the future, also gelded in the meantime. It will be interesting to see if he rocks up in the seven-furlong 0-85 at Doncaster at the end of May which was used last year as the stepping-stone for Mickley’s Royal rumble.
Sourdough (Three-year-old handicapper: Middle-distance)
It’s a quarter of a century since Sir Martyn Arbib bought Farfala, the foundation mare for a fine staying family that has served the owner and Hughie Morrison very well. Sourdough is the latest off the production line, and he’ll flourish in handicaps over longer trips than he could tackle as a juvenile, hinting at what’s in the pipeline with his wet-sail third at Lingfield on his final qualifying run in November when his last furlong was quicker than the more prominent and polished pair (from the Godolphin and Beckett yards) who finished ahead of him. A mark of 76 is a serviceable starting point for when those stamina genes kick in.
Valvano (Group graduate)
An unmixed cocktail, all of the ingredients are there for Valvano to win a big handicap before progressing to pattern level, as befits the specific strand of ‘Group Graduate’.
So, what are the ingredients? It’s the size of him, the stable he’s with, the foundations he laid (runner-up to Notable Speech), the little mileage he’s had and, above all, the fact he still had some growing up to do, his rawness and keenness limiting his levels, including when beaten favourite in the November Handicap. He’s every inch a better four-year-old in the making, one with pattern-race pretensions when he gets his act together.
Valvano was fifth in the November Handicap at Doncaster last year
Cosmic Year (Could be anything: Colt)
It was definitely a ‘wow’ moment when Cosmic Year made such a dynamic debut at Sandown, about as impressive as it gets on the eye, and fortified by facts, completing the final two furlongs in 23.56 seconds which translates to a ridiculously high finishing speed percentage of 110.27 per cent for the uphill stretch of Sandown, while the horse some six-and-a-half lengths adrift of him in second was the odds-on Rock D’Oro who had previously gone close against Champagne Stakes winner Bay City Roller.
From one of the best Juddmonte families, Cosmic Year is obliged to go for a Guineas trial, the Greenham his likely destination according to Harry Charlton.
Cosmic Year on the way to winning the Sir Michael Stoute – Farewell And Thank You Novice Stakes at Sandown
Verse Of Love (Could be anything: Filly)
At the announcement of the European Classification in January, the BHA two-year-old handicapper Graeme Smith nominated Verse Of Love as number one of his three to follow, and it’s easy to see why.
To win a 15-runner fillies’ maiden at Newmarket in October by five lengths takes some doing, given the yards and pedigrees on show, but it was the way she glided through it which really marked her out as something special in prospect. And she did it from stall one, on the far flank, and without looking flat out, yet her time was only four-tenths of a second slower than Oh So Sharp winner Merrily later on the card. Verse Of Love is 33/1 for the Guineas.
American Bay (Stable switcher)
From 10 starts, a solitary success in a novice at 30/100 feels like talent short-changed for American Bay given the way he set off for Charlton, but that makes him ripe for remodelling, just the job for Paul Midgley, who has sorted many a sprinter like him.
Grant Wood and Yazaman were two such transformers in 2024, winning four handicaps apiece, contributing to Midgley’s best total (and strike-rate) since 2011, a welcoming environment for American Bay who starts for the stable with a mark in the 70s – he’s a good bet to be in the 90s by the season’s end.
Arctic Dawn (Wild card)
A four-year-old maiden wouldn’t normally be on a hit list of horses to follow, hence Arctic Dawn’s inclusion as a wild card, but there’s plenty to think that he’ll take off this year in the hope he gets a clearer run of racing.
He’s had just five starts in his life so far, each only scratching the surface, and the other pertinent positive is that he’s in one of the most up-and-coming stables in the country, the Kublers as high as 11th last year in the strike-rate table of British trainers (with at least 100 runners).
He has been gelded since last year, and it’s interesting that Arctic Dawn’s illustrious half-siblings Real Smart (Grade Three winner in the US) and Night Sparkle (runner-up in the Lillie Langtry and Park Hill) both came into their own aged four and five.